Greeny News

If the infrastructure of fossil fuels is changing the world is "lost forever" the possibility of avoiding dangerous climate change

The world is likely to build as many power plants to new fossil fuels, factories, power-hungry and inefficient buildings in the next five years, it will be impossible to keep global warming to levels safe, and the last opportunity to combat dangerous climate change will be "lost forever", according to the most comprehensive analysis to date of global energy infrastructure.

built from now on, producing coal will continue in the coming decades, and this "lock-in" effect is most likely to cause irreversible climate change, the highest authority world's energy economy has found. If this infrastructure is not changed rapidly over the next five years, the results can be disastrous.

"The door closes," Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency, told the Guardian. "I am very concerned -.. If you do not change direction now how we use energy, we will end up beyond what the scientists tell us that this is the minimum [security] The gate will be closed forever "

Each month, now account: if the world is kept below 2C of warming, scientists consider the limit of safety, emissions must not be more than 450 ppm of carbon dioxide in atmosphere, the level is currently around 390ppm. However, the existing infrastructure in the world is now producing 80% of the "carbon budget", according to a new analysis of the IEA, on Wednesday. This gives a difference of more and more narrow in the reform of the global economy to a low carbon basis.

If current trends continue, and we in the construction of high-carbon energy production, and in 2015 at least 90% of 'carbon budget' available will be swallowed by our energy and infrastructure Industrial. In 2017, there will be no flexibility at all - the "carbon budget" is spoken of all, as calculated by the IEA

. Caution

Birol comes at a critical time in international negotiations on climate change, as governments prepare for the next fifteen days of talks in Durban, South Africa, starting in late November. "If we have an international agreement, whose effect is to launch in 2017, then the door to [storage temperatures of 2 ° C warming] will be closed forever," said Birol.

But governments around the world are preparing once again to defer to an early conclusion of negotiations. Originally, the goal was to reach an agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol of 1997, the only binding international agreement on emissions, after its current provisions expire in 2012. But after years of setbacks, an increasing number of countries - including the United Kingdom, Japan and Russia - and to postpone the discussion for several years. Russia and Japan have talked in recent weeks point to an agreement in 2018 or 2020, and the United Kingdom supported this initiative. Greg Barker, Minister of the UK Climate Change, said in a meeting: "We need China, the United States above all other major countries [Brazil, South Africa , India and China] to agree if we can get this year 2015 we could. be prepared to face a click in 2020. "

Birol said it would be nice to be too late. "I think it is important to have a sense of urgency -. Our analysis shows [what happens] if you do not change investment patterns, which can occur as a result of an international agreement "

And it's not a problem in the developing world, as some commentators have tried to frame it. In the UK, Europe and the United States, there are several plans for new fossil fuel power plants contribute significantly to global emissions over the coming decades.

This "lock-in" effect is the most important factor that increases the risk of runaway climate change, according to the IEA in its World Energy Outlook Annual, published Wednesday.