Monday, September 23, 2013

one of the most important in the history scientific literature clearly shows the extent of the risks posed by emissions

Prime Minister will face a formidable dilemma next month with the release of the world's most authoritative report on climate change, providing a clear warning to scientists about the extent of the risks by rising levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Cameron to decide to keep the game in a noisy group of scientific skeptics in the Conservative Party, or rather listen to experts.

Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is one of the most important in the history scientific papers.

The first volume will be published next month, providing a complete analysis of the latest research on the basic science of climate change.

255 was prepared by scientists from universities and research institutes in 38 countries, which were controlled by governments around the world to consider all available evidence, including thousands scientific articles.

expert assessment of the IPCC has been one of the toughest in the history of science audit process, with more than 50,000 comments on the draft versions are available for Hundreds of people around the world, including climate change skeptics.

A draft was leaked by a skeptic at the beginning of this year, shows that the IPCC is for the first time since its inception in 1988, with the intention to provide a budget estimate emissions greenhouse should not be exceeded if the world is to have a reasonable avoid more than 2 ? C above pre-industrial temperatures warming luck.

governments of the world, climate change UN summit in Cancun, Mexico, in December 2010, decided that emissions of greenhouse gases must be reduced in order to avoid dangerous levels of climate change due to global warming of more than 2 ? C.

Many recent studies, which were reviewed by experts in the IPCC show that the proven reserves of fossil fuels, when burned, release enough carbon dioxide to create a strong probability that the increase the global average temperature of more than 2 ? C above the pre-industrial level by the end of this century.

efforts While more than 100 countries, including China, the United States and other major producers of greenhouse gas emissions have already committed and pledged to take measures against the national climate change, provided is insufficient and collectively mean that the emissions budget 2 ? C was broken in the coming decades.

countries negotiate a new international treaty, signed in 2015, the climate change summit in Paris to try to ensure that emission reductions are fairly comprehensive. The new IPCC report makes it clear that unless the upward trend reverses annual emissions, the world will almost sentenced to more than 2 ? C global warming, creating a prehistoric climate not seen since the Pliocene 3 million years ago, when ice sheets were much smaller and global sea level was about 20 meters higher than today.

Owen Paterson, who as Secretary of the Environment, the Minister responsible for the elastic UK against the impacts of climate change, has publicly advocated skeptical claims that emissions of greenhouse gases are responsible for global warming.

Worse, Paterson department fails to increase spending on defense against floods to account for rising sea level and stronger than the UK is already facing precipitation.

Meanwhile, the Chancellor made speeches that present a false choice between promoting growth and the fight against climate change, undermining private investment in the transition from UK economy with low carbon emissions.

and the Treasury was responsible for insisting that gas generation strategy, published last December before the public relations offensive to promote fracking, should also undertake a review of the carbon budgets in 2014 in the United Kingdom to weaken.

These cabinet members are invited by Lord Lawson, chairman of the Foundation policy of global warming, a lobbying group for climate change skeptics, Mr. Ridley, the former chairman of Northern Rock hereditary peer and Conservative Peter Lilley, completing his salary as an MP to work part-time as vice president of Tethys Petroleum.

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Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Humans are very good at managing risk, except when it comes to the biggest risk we face - climate change

human beings in general are very risk averse. We buy insurance to protect our investments in homes and cars. For those of us who do not have universal health care and health insurance. We do not have the possibility - however remote -. Who could fail to prepare in case something bad happens to our homes, cars, and health

Climate change appears to be an important exception to this rule. Managing risks posed by climate change is not a priority for the public, despite the fact that a climate catastrophe of this century is a very real possibility, and that such an event would have a negative impact on all of us . For example, in my work, in the assessment of risks to the environment, if a contaminated site poses a cancer risk to humans more than 1 in 10, is considered one of 000-1 million which adds risk unacceptably high and must be reduced. This despite the fact that American has almost 1 in 2 chance of developing and 1 in 4 chance of dying from cancer (1-for-3 and 1-5 for an American woman, respectively).

for a chance of 42 percent of an average American developing cancer in his life, we are not ready to add another 0,001 percent. The reason is simple - really, really do not want cancer, and we believe that even a small additional risk unacceptable

however, do not share the aversion to the risks posed by climate change caused by man. These risks include more than half of the world's species potentially endangered, extreme weather such as heat waves more common, global food supply threatens the more frequent extreme weather, glaciers and resources associated with millions of people disappearing water, rising sea levels, coastal flooding, etc..

This is not a thin 1-1000000 risk, we see the consequences of serious damage to the environment


"I can not say the same thing [to do something] is not the best solution."

This argument, often made by climate hipsters shows a lack of understanding about risk management. I'm sure if I'm in a car accident, or if my house catches fire, or if I'm going to be seriously ill or injured in the coming years. This uncertainty has not prevented the purchase of auto, home and health. It's just a matter of prudent risk management, ensuring that we are prepared if something bad happens to something that we enjoy. This principle certainly applies to the global climate.

simply uncertainty is not our friend when it comes to risk. If uncertainty is high, it means a bad deal might not happen, but it also means that we can not exclude the possibility of a catastrophic event occurs. Inaction is justified only if we are sure that the bad result will not.

Sunday, September 1, 2013

major British charity report accuses the "failure of political will," it is the poor children have fewer chances in life

sleepwalking Britain risks in a world where inequality is so entrenched that our children grow up in a state of social " apartheid , according to a charity of the foreground.

In a damning report to be published next week , the National Bureau estimates for children in many ways, child poverty has become a major problem in the 1960s, when he been conducted a pioneering study , Born to Fail ? .

The report compares aspects of children's lives today data Born to Fail ? cohort study of 11 years , conducted in 1969. We find that many more children grow up in relative poverty today - 3.6 million compared to $ 2 million - and says that these children suffer devastating consequences " in his life "

he added. "Today, although there have been some improvements, in general, the situation looks better , and in some respects has worsened "

The report concludes that :

? A child from a disadvantaged background is much less likely to achieve a good level of development, four to one child in a privileged home.

? Children living in disadvantaged neighborhoods are more likely to be victims of accidental injury or an accident at home.

? Children in the poorest areas are nine times more likely than those living in affluent areas to have access to green spaces, places to play and live in an environment with better quality air .

? Children living in deprived areas are three times more likely to be obese than children who grow up in wealthy areas and girls are twice as likely .

" Our analysis shows that , despite some improvements, inequalities and disadvantages faced by the poorest children 50 years ago still exists today ," said Dr Hilary Emery, Chief management office.

comparisons are made with other countries and the lack of ambition makes children in the UK suffer unnecessarily developed . Consequently, the forms of disadvantage may become permanent members of our society .

charity requests that if the UK to follow the example of European countries which are considered the best places to grow up in the death of 172 children only unintentional injuries could be prevented each year , 320,000 more 15 - to 19 -year-old would be in education or training, and nearly 45,000 under 11 years are obese

the current and previous governments have made ??the fight against child poverty a key commitment . There was a consensus among politicians that must be done to help working parents to lift families out of poverty.

The authors highlighted the progress made in improving the access of young children to day- care centers. But keep in mind that most children growing up in poverty - 63% - have at least one parent or caregiver who is at work

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Saturday, August 24, 2013

union leader said errors in the introduction of the carbon price, but says he is not implying criticism of Julia Gillard

Kevin Rudd admitted mandate was to present the carbon tax in this term of government, which gives the center lines of the coalition of political crisis.

Speaking on ABC TV Insiders program on Sunday morning chain, Rudd said he was "the first to admit that in the past, [work] The government has a number of bad things, "and cited as an example:" I believe that our actions in the carbon tax were right and move me ... did not have a mandate to do so. "

also referred to its decision to resume shortly after the Prime Minister to bring forward the start of a variable price and the end of "tax" fixed carbon, saying: "A variable is the price best answer to an international market. "

former Prime Minister Julia Gillard promised during the election campaign of 2010, there would be a carbon tax under a government led (Labour promised an emissions trading system in an undefined time in the future).

has become the axis of the attack on the Coalition leader Tony Abbott after work agreed with the Greens and independents to start allowances trading scheme with a fixed price for three years, many said amounts to a tax on all but name.

But in the interview, before the launch of the Coalition Brisbane on Sunday morning, Rudd insisted he criticized his predecessor, and will not be done.

But he said Labour had got the big calls right, the economy, especially during the global financial crisis on the national broadband network in the health system and the hospital, schools and the national disability insurance scheme.

"These are great calls and many of Mr. Abbott received a call completely wrong," said Rudd.
Saturday after a backup Newspoll Guardian Lonergan notes that the seat of Griffith in Queensland, the Prime Minister is likely to be hijacked by the liberals.

investigation Thursday Guardian Lonergan showed Rudd drag his Liberal rival Bill Glasson 48-52 bipartisan basis preferred.
Saturday for the Australian weekend gave the same figures.
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Monday, August 12, 2013

Like humans, climate scientists have a vested interest in getting the right policy on climate change

We scientists talk to each other ... much. Usually it comes out or techniques that can help you better understand the world around us. Sometimes, however, we talk about how to communicate our science in the world. We believe that our research is essential to help everyone make better decisions today to protect the future of us all.

During one of those conversations that I had with a colleague, Dr. Andrew Dessler, we come to the question of how scientists should defend the public. In particular, we focus on recently published an article in the Guardian myopic. After our conversation. Dr. Dessler writes his thoughts below in the context of this blog. Take Andy ...

"In a recent post for The Guardian, Dr Tamsin Edwards says that scientists should scrupulously avoid promoting specific policies - even going so far as to say that it is a "moral obligation."

The basic argument of Dr. Edward is that the general public is too stupid to understand the difference between science and scientific defense policy conversation. While most members of the general public are not scientists who are experts in the research are the experts and to discern what the practical importance of the opinion of experts. Arguing that we filter what we say to the general public so as not to confuse them is patronizing and greatly underestimated their intelligence and abilities.

collect and interpret evidence." Certainly can not believe it, but this is wrong. Cognitive research has shown that views on climate science can be explained almost entirely by the values ??of a person - for example, their views on the role of government.

The skeptical argument that "scientists are political supporters" is nothing more than a post hoc rationalization for rejecting the expert opinion of the world scientific community, allowing skeptics to come a conclusion consistent with their values. While scientists have been promoting policies, skeptics simply think of another excuse to reject the advice of scientific experts. Blaming scientists skeptical of irrationality is hopelessly naive.

So what I think scientists should do? Firstly, I think it depends on each individual researcher to decide where to draw the line. If Dr. Edwards is uncomfortable talking about a carbon tax, then you definitely should not talk. When I speak in public about climate change, I feel comfortable saying that, as a citizen who happens to know a lot about science, I strongly support action to reduce GHG emissions. If people want more details, I can add that political experts agree that the key policy action we must take is a price on carbon, which can be achieved either a carbon tax or cap-and-trade.
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Tuesday, August 6, 2013

A university seeks to analyze the e-mails from students to staff to detect negative comments. Is this ministry, or "ethics of fear"?

few years ago, the library of the University of Huddersfield establishes a connection. They realized that the analysis of the electronic footprint left whenever a student stole the library, borrow a book or seen something online, and put them together with other student records not only could help improve library services, but also address more fundamental questions about how students learn. Using the library, for example, related to the way students and academic achievement?


The answer turned out to be emphatic. Charting library use against academic achievement found that students who do not use the library were more than seven times more likely to leave their degree they did.

from next school year, the collection and analysis of data will become a formal part of Huddersfield teaching and learning strategy. By collecting information about what students are doing, for example, if they attend classes and how they are executed, including their strengths and weaknesses, the university is that the staff and students more aware of what works - and act accordingly. This will impact on the design staff of how the program of studies, during the term of the plan and make decisions about the type of learning support needed by different groups of students or individuals .

"We are looking in terms of student achievement," says Cath Ellis, director of teaching and learning in the School of Music, Humanities and Media at Huddersfield. "How can we get more students outside the range of 2.1 to the first class? "


not the only university to develop the potential of the data. While students in the next Parliament will be better informed than any previous cohort of institutions that have chosen to participate through social networks and two new sets of key information that enables them to compare different aspects of college life, institutions also be better informed than ever about their students.

While universities have systematically collected information on student years - his family background books removed from the library - the rise of computers and improving digital skills now offer the opportunity to rebuild together. It could fundamentally change the way they operate institutions - as well as ethical and privacy challenging

"It's almost losing things, generated as a byproduct of communications, and previously had nothing to do with it," says Rob Englebright, head of the JISC program, which promotes the use of digital technologies in education. "Now we can watch and patterning."

What trends

universities choose to look, and how they use what they find, varies. Some use these so-called analysis of more effective marketing data, others to identify the most effective way to gather a research grant, others to manage staff performance, and much to help prevent school dropout.

one of the first institutions to use data to facilitate retention was Purdue University in Indiana, four years ago presented a semaphore set whenever the students enrolled in the website the course. He warned they were likely to fail (red light), with the behavior of the previous student. A red signal came up with suggestions on how to get back on track to green, participating in help sessions or more.

Since then, some British universities have developed similar systems, such as the University of Derby. It examines how students participate in the university in general, including not only the way they interact with the virtual learning environment, but also if they are the captain of the rugby team and their use of parking.

John Lamb, a student leader of Derby project experience, said: "The staff said that the information gathered would be invaluable help to understand that students come and face challenges.". She says they also help universities after committing students while being useful for writing academic references.

Ellis acknowledges that the idea also presents challenges for the staff, because data analysis monitors your behavior and that of their students. Also potentially increases their workload. She cites anecdotal evidence that some schools are bombarded with personal information about their students without help work out what it means or what to do with it, which raises questions about where the responsibility if nothing is fits on the form.

And while many students are encouraged to see that their behavior is not up to it, others do not. "Having these data and draw conclusions from it does not mean you need to show students or tutors, as it may do more harm than good," says Ellis. "We are still assessing the impact."

Englebright recognizes that look large datasets on "moral fear", because it affects how universities allocate resources. A danger is that they can identify the demographic groups most likely to give up and stop hiring, or decide not to spend money to support students who may leave.
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Monday, July 15, 2013

the church of San Pedro, Manchester, Rose Lipman Building, corner of Leytonstone Library, London

mired in mud, stained with blood and muttering fight witchily so close to the public that viewers wince at Claymores, this awareness

Macbeth is the ultimate International Theatre Festival in Manchester. It is a dual purpose by Kenneth Branagh. Taking the title role and share the address with Rob Ashford. However, at least in the designer Christopher Oram. The most powerful imagination in visual production.

Branagh has clear authority on Shakespeare. It beats by verse, refreshing and treat it as information rather than self-expression. It deciphers complex passages and make sense close to home, so that the summary appears immediately. His "out, out, brief candle", published in trouble, is a metaphysical speculation least a lament for his wife. However, its natural power loosens when their interpretation is clear speech and asparagus with effects. At critical moments his speech is also fractured his thoughts and babbles. It is barely able to spit out the word "murder." Ingenious, but it was enough stutter.

There execution alongside some candid (especially Ray Fearon), a visible smooth action. Alex Kingston is a particular cause. As slow as Branagh's fast, it is marble and declamatory, with some strange accents. In the sleepwalking scene she jabs her robotic fingers.

does not speak, but the staging that takes you to the heart of the

Macbeth . It was an inspired movement to establish the most afflicted guilt and spirit of Shakespeare's works in a disused church. It was a clever move to press the action in a long strip with the public on the wooden benches on each side. Battles (the first scenes show the struggles, rather than the state) silent pause and space soaked by rain. The dramatic contrasts of the work can be seen at a glance. At the end of the altar is a tangle of golden candles gradually extinguished during the night. The other is a dark wood wall, witches erupted when he burst hidden doors. Rain occasionally through these tables. Darkness reigns. It is a revelation about


, but a truth. Live National Theatre production will be broadcast on Saturday.

Circle Mirror Transformation
is low, with a fairly predictable curve echoes in art and life is helped by it. However, the ability of Macdonald as a director is paused and plaiting words together to make a normal look good and a good sparkling Thurs She specializes in a small theater moments.

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