Monday, September 23, 2013

one of the most important in the history scientific literature clearly shows the extent of the risks posed by emissions

Prime Minister will face a formidable dilemma next month with the release of the world's most authoritative report on climate change, providing a clear warning to scientists about the extent of the risks by rising levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Cameron to decide to keep the game in a noisy group of scientific skeptics in the Conservative Party, or rather listen to experts.

Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is one of the most important in the history scientific papers.

The first volume will be published next month, providing a complete analysis of the latest research on the basic science of climate change.

255 was prepared by scientists from universities and research institutes in 38 countries, which were controlled by governments around the world to consider all available evidence, including thousands scientific articles.

expert assessment of the IPCC has been one of the toughest in the history of science audit process, with more than 50,000 comments on the draft versions are available for Hundreds of people around the world, including climate change skeptics.

A draft was leaked by a skeptic at the beginning of this year, shows that the IPCC is for the first time since its inception in 1988, with the intention to provide a budget estimate emissions greenhouse should not be exceeded if the world is to have a reasonable avoid more than 2 ? C above pre-industrial temperatures warming luck.

governments of the world, climate change UN summit in Cancun, Mexico, in December 2010, decided that emissions of greenhouse gases must be reduced in order to avoid dangerous levels of climate change due to global warming of more than 2 ? C.

Many recent studies, which were reviewed by experts in the IPCC show that the proven reserves of fossil fuels, when burned, release enough carbon dioxide to create a strong probability that the increase the global average temperature of more than 2 ? C above the pre-industrial level by the end of this century.

efforts While more than 100 countries, including China, the United States and other major producers of greenhouse gas emissions have already committed and pledged to take measures against the national climate change, provided is insufficient and collectively mean that the emissions budget 2 ? C was broken in the coming decades.

countries negotiate a new international treaty, signed in 2015, the climate change summit in Paris to try to ensure that emission reductions are fairly comprehensive. The new IPCC report makes it clear that unless the upward trend reverses annual emissions, the world will almost sentenced to more than 2 ? C global warming, creating a prehistoric climate not seen since the Pliocene 3 million years ago, when ice sheets were much smaller and global sea level was about 20 meters higher than today.

Owen Paterson, who as Secretary of the Environment, the Minister responsible for the elastic UK against the impacts of climate change, has publicly advocated skeptical claims that emissions of greenhouse gases are responsible for global warming.

Worse, Paterson department fails to increase spending on defense against floods to account for rising sea level and stronger than the UK is already facing precipitation.

Meanwhile, the Chancellor made speeches that present a false choice between promoting growth and the fight against climate change, undermining private investment in the transition from UK economy with low carbon emissions.

and the Treasury was responsible for insisting that gas generation strategy, published last December before the public relations offensive to promote fracking, should also undertake a review of the carbon budgets in 2014 in the United Kingdom to weaken.

These cabinet members are invited by Lord Lawson, chairman of the Foundation policy of global warming, a lobbying group for climate change skeptics, Mr. Ridley, the former chairman of Northern Rock hereditary peer and Conservative Peter Lilley, completing his salary as an MP to work part-time as vice president of Tethys Petroleum.

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Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Humans are very good at managing risk, except when it comes to the biggest risk we face - climate change

human beings in general are very risk averse. We buy insurance to protect our investments in homes and cars. For those of us who do not have universal health care and health insurance. We do not have the possibility - however remote -. Who could fail to prepare in case something bad happens to our homes, cars, and health

Climate change appears to be an important exception to this rule. Managing risks posed by climate change is not a priority for the public, despite the fact that a climate catastrophe of this century is a very real possibility, and that such an event would have a negative impact on all of us . For example, in my work, in the assessment of risks to the environment, if a contaminated site poses a cancer risk to humans more than 1 in 10, is considered one of 000-1 million which adds risk unacceptably high and must be reduced. This despite the fact that American has almost 1 in 2 chance of developing and 1 in 4 chance of dying from cancer (1-for-3 and 1-5 for an American woman, respectively).

for a chance of 42 percent of an average American developing cancer in his life, we are not ready to add another 0,001 percent. The reason is simple - really, really do not want cancer, and we believe that even a small additional risk unacceptable

however, do not share the aversion to the risks posed by climate change caused by man. These risks include more than half of the world's species potentially endangered, extreme weather such as heat waves more common, global food supply threatens the more frequent extreme weather, glaciers and resources associated with millions of people disappearing water, rising sea levels, coastal flooding, etc..

This is not a thin 1-1000000 risk, we see the consequences of serious damage to the environment


"I can not say the same thing [to do something] is not the best solution."

This argument, often made by climate hipsters shows a lack of understanding about risk management. I'm sure if I'm in a car accident, or if my house catches fire, or if I'm going to be seriously ill or injured in the coming years. This uncertainty has not prevented the purchase of auto, home and health. It's just a matter of prudent risk management, ensuring that we are prepared if something bad happens to something that we enjoy. This principle certainly applies to the global climate.

simply uncertainty is not our friend when it comes to risk. If uncertainty is high, it means a bad deal might not happen, but it also means that we can not exclude the possibility of a catastrophic event occurs. Inaction is justified only if we are sure that the bad result will not.

Sunday, September 1, 2013

major British charity report accuses the "failure of political will," it is the poor children have fewer chances in life

sleepwalking Britain risks in a world where inequality is so entrenched that our children grow up in a state of social " apartheid , according to a charity of the foreground.

In a damning report to be published next week , the National Bureau estimates for children in many ways, child poverty has become a major problem in the 1960s, when he been conducted a pioneering study , Born to Fail ? .

The report compares aspects of children's lives today data Born to Fail ? cohort study of 11 years , conducted in 1969. We find that many more children grow up in relative poverty today - 3.6 million compared to $ 2 million - and says that these children suffer devastating consequences " in his life "

he added. "Today, although there have been some improvements, in general, the situation looks better , and in some respects has worsened "

The report concludes that :

? A child from a disadvantaged background is much less likely to achieve a good level of development, four to one child in a privileged home.

? Children living in disadvantaged neighborhoods are more likely to be victims of accidental injury or an accident at home.

? Children in the poorest areas are nine times more likely than those living in affluent areas to have access to green spaces, places to play and live in an environment with better quality air .

? Children living in deprived areas are three times more likely to be obese than children who grow up in wealthy areas and girls are twice as likely .

" Our analysis shows that , despite some improvements, inequalities and disadvantages faced by the poorest children 50 years ago still exists today ," said Dr Hilary Emery, Chief management office.

comparisons are made with other countries and the lack of ambition makes children in the UK suffer unnecessarily developed . Consequently, the forms of disadvantage may become permanent members of our society .

charity requests that if the UK to follow the example of European countries which are considered the best places to grow up in the death of 172 children only unintentional injuries could be prevented each year , 320,000 more 15 - to 19 -year-old would be in education or training, and nearly 45,000 under 11 years are obese

the current and previous governments have made ??the fight against child poverty a key commitment . There was a consensus among politicians that must be done to help working parents to lift families out of poverty.

The authors highlighted the progress made in improving the access of young children to day- care centers. But keep in mind that most children growing up in poverty - 63% - have at least one parent or caregiver who is at work

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