Friday, October 5, 2012

predict the number of storms that form an exact science, and no one knows how many hit land

This weekend is the first of the official hurricane season in the Atlantic.

However, a week before its release in the southeastern United States was hit by Tropical Storm Beryl. Tropical Storm Alberto, Beryl and preformed marked the first time in over a century that two named storms materialized before 1 June

this mean that the costs of the East and the Gulf are in line for a parade of hurricanes? I do not think so.

Each year, a group of experts produced tropical storm and hurricane forecasts for the Atlantic. Knowing the most famous National Hurricane Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Other analysts include The Weather Channel, Tropical Storm Risk Consortium of University College London, UK Met Office official and Colorado State University.

all suggest that this year will be in line with the average of the last 30 years: 12 named storms (winds of at least 39 mph), 6 hurricanes (at least 74 mph), and 3 intense hurricanes ( at least 111 mph) in the Atlantic basin.

Note that the predictions are mostly above average dating back to 1950. The reason for the increase in the average and the belief that, for the moment, at least in part by rising temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean from the equator to Greenland since 1995.

However, tropical activity should be less than 19 named storms last season due to a number of mitigating factors years.

Firstly, La Niña, a key ingredient to keep cold air trapped in Canada last winter, has declined in recent months. La Niña is defined as "colder than normal temperatures of the sea surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific." William Gray and his team at Colorado State found a strong correlation between the girl and the cyclonic activity than average.

Second, the increased wind shear over the main hurricane development region of the western tip of Africa to the eastern Caribbean islands. Tropical storms develop out warm temperatures of the ocean and drowned when the wind current is in the opposite direction to normal east-west course.

Third, the extreme eastern Atlantic below normal temperatures this time.

The Joker

all odds, it is possible return in late summer of El Niño. These warmer than normal sea surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific have the opposite effect of the little girl. If El Niño is back with a vengeance, we expect the low end of the forecast to be the best bet NOAA forecasts.

I was also 10 years ago to see how the pre-season forecast by NOAA pan.

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